THE 27 CLUB
No peak at 27
Among musicians with a UK number one album from 1956 to 2007, the death rate at 27 was 0.57 per 100 musician-years, almost the same as at 25 and 32.
Check a claimWHAT THE STUDIES FOUND
No curse at 27,
but fame has its risks.
Every few years a famous musician dies at 27 and the legend of the 27 club returns.
Check a claim
NO PEAK AT 27a myth, by the numbers
Two research teams tested it with data on chart-topping musicians and rock and pop stars. They found no special danger at 27, but a higher risk of early death that lasted for years after fame, and clues to why.
At a glance
- No spike at 27
- Higher risk for years
- Roots before fame
- Three findings from the research
2–3× higher
Death risk in their 20s and 30s vs the UK population
Based on 1,046 musicians with a UK number one album between 1956 and 2007, of whom 71 had died by August 2011.
RISK · BMJ 2011
9.2%
Rock and pop stars who had died by February 2012
137 of 1,489 stars from North America and Europe who reached fame between 1956 and 2006, with mortality rising relative to the general population over time since fame.
DEATHS · BMJ OPEN 2012
TWO NUMBERS WORTH KNOWING
The risk is real,
the age is not.
One figure on how much higher the risk was,
one on how many stars in a large sample had died.
The BMJ authors suggest the 27 club may be an example of confirmation bias: people notice the cases that fit the story and ignore those that do not.
A QUICK CLAIM CHECK
Which claims
hold up?
Pick a common claim about rock star deaths to see what the studies found. The bar shows how well the evidence supports it.
Based on Wolkewitz et al., BMJ (2011) and Bellis et al., BMJ Open (2012). Population studies of famous performers, not statements about any individual.
THE SHORT ANSWER
The number 27
is a coincidence.
From a 2011 BMJ study of UK number one artists
and a 2012 BMJ Open study of rock and pop stars.
THE REAL RISK
Higher for years
The same study found the risk of death for famous musicians throughout their 20s and 30s was two to three times that of the general UK population.
See the numbers
BEFORE FAME
Roots in childhood
The BMJ Open study found stars who died of substance use or risk-related causes were more likely to have had adverse childhood experiences.
What it means
IF THIS IS CLOSE TO HOME
Help is there,
famous or not.
The studies point to risk-taking and substance use, often with roots in early life. If you or someone you know is struggling, NHS services can help.
For urgent mental health help
Use 111 online or call 111 and select the mental health option, or ask for an urgent GP appointment.
In an emergency
Call 999 or go to A&E. The NHS says a mental health emergency is as serious as a physical one.
For someone to talk to
The NHS lists free, confidential listening services staffed by trained volunteers.
For drug or alcohol problems
The NHS addiction support pages explain how to get help, including advice for families.
WHY THE MYTH STICKS
Memorable deaths,
forgotten averages.
Deaths of young stars get huge coverage, while deaths in later life after long illnesses get far less. The BMJ Open authors note that rock and pop fame is a relatively new phenomenon, so deaths in old age are only now emerging, which can skew how fans see the numbers.
They also warn that young fans may see risk-taking as a symbol of success. Their conclusion is that such behaviour may be rooted in childhood adversity, with fame and wealth simply giving more opportunity for it.
Questions
Questions people ask
Is the 27 club real?
The evidence says no. A BMJ study of 1,046 musicians with UK number one albums found no peak in deaths at 27; the rate at 27 was almost the same as at 25 and 32.
Are famous musicians more likely to die young?
The studies suggest a higher risk. Famous musicians in their 20s and 30s had two to three times the death risk of the general UK population in the BMJ study.
Do solo artists face more risk than bands?
In the BMJ Open study, solo performers had significantly higher hazard ratios than members of European bands, as did North American stars.
Has the risk changed over time?
Stars who became famous from 1980 onwards had better survival rates, and among European stars relative mortality began to recover about 25 years after fame.
Where can I get help if I am struggling?
The NHS advises using 111 online or calling 111 for urgent mental health help, and calling 999 or going to A&E in an emergency. NHS pages also list addiction support.
Sources
Where the facts come from
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